There are, however, few states that could be informative of the ultimate outcome for both.
That’s why North Carolina is arguably the most important state to watch on election night, if you want to know which side is winning and which side is losing.
And Trump continues to focus on the state as he heads there Wednesday for a campaign rally.
In other words, unless the race is really close (which it could be), North Carolina should give us a fairly good insight into both the presidential and Senate landscapes on Election Night.
In other words, the state is probably a must win for Trump. The reason is pretty simple: other swing states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are more Democratic leaning than North Carolina. If Trump loses North Carolina, there’s only the slimmest of hopes that he’s going to win other places that are less hospitable to him.
On the other hand, there are a lot of maps where Biden can conceivably win without North Carolina. He’s polling about 5 points better in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin than North Carolina, for example. Winning those states, along with the states Hillay Clinton won four years ago, would get Biden to north of 270 electoral votes.
A Trump win in North Carolina merely means that Biden’s unlikely to blow Trump completely out of the water. We’ll have to see what other states show before having a clear understanding of the electoral landscape.
When you line up the different Republican seats in terms of their polling averages, Democrats look like they’re in the best shape in Colorado, Arizona and Maine. They have 5-point or greater leads in all of these contests. That leaves them with one seat they need to gain a majority.
At this point, the seat that looks most likely to put Democrats over the top is North Carolina. Cunningham, the Democrat, has an average advantage of about 4 points in the polls over Tillis.
Now, Democrats do have other paths to get to a majority without winning North Carolina. They are ahead in Iowa and are quite close in a large number of seats including the Georgia regular and special elections. The prospect just becomes dicier for them without North Carolina.
So just like in the presidential race, North Carolina could give us a keen insight into whether it’s going to mostly be an Election Day or an Election Week to know who has taken the Senate. No other state can really say that when it comes to both the presidential and Senate side of the ledger.