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Analyst Sounds the Valuation Alarm Bell on Nvidia’s Hot Stock

With the news headlines saturated by so many heavy impact events, it has almost been forgotten that the earnings season is not over yet.

Next week will see one of 2020’s star performers step up to the plate. Nvidia (NVDA) will report quarterly results on Wednesday, November 18, and avid Street watchers will be keen to find out if the semiconductor giant hit another home run.

So far, Nvidia has had an excellent 2020. The company has been a prime beneficiary of Covid-19 driven secular trends such as gaming and data center, Nvidia’s main bread winners.

Overall, Deutsche Bank analyst Ross Seymore anticipates Nvidia will “deliver a solid beat” and expects both segments to post strong results. The 5-star analyst anticipates 153% year-over-year growth for Datacenter and a 27% year-over-year increase for Gaming, with the two segments making up 41% and 47% of sales, respectively.

In total, Seymore expects Nvidia to report revenue of $4.45 billion, up by 48% from the same period last year and coming in slightly ahead of the Street’s $4.42 billion estimate. The midpoint of Nvidia’s guidance is $4.40 billion.

However, the market has already rewarded the GPU leader handsomely in 2020, with shares up by a massive 126% year-to-date. And this is where the problem lies for Seymore.

With its extra-hot valuation, the analyst cautions investors “against super-bull case scenarios for NVDA fundamentally,” and wonders how much upside there’s left in the tank after such a run up.

“While NVDA continues to hit on all cylinders in an otherwise challenging macro environment,” Seymore said, “We believe much of this goodness is reflected in its share price (~50x CY21E vs SOX at 22x) and at such a valuation fear that an inevitable pause in growth (post SIP/7nm in Gaming, as Cloud digests similar to 2019 etc.) appears to be insufficiently discounted. Consequently, we expect strong execution from NVDA, but retain our Hold rating until a more favorable risk/reward becomes apparent.”

Despite the Hold rating, Seymore’s price target gets a bump and moves from $450 to $500. Still, the new figure represents downside of 7% from current levels. (To watch Seymore’s track record, click here)

Most Street analysts, though, disagree with Seymore. Based on 26 Buys, 4 Holds and 1 Sell, the stock qualifies with a Strong Buy consensus rating. At $582.78, the average price target suggests possible upside of another 9% over the next months. (See Nvidia stock analysis on TipRanks)

To find good ideas for tech stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a newly launched tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.


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